Sunday, March 17, 2013

The $8 Million Chart We Should All Be Watching

Fun fact: did you know that it was only just over a month and a half ago that a new all-time high record was set for the value of bids on MtGox's order book? That record was $3 million USD.

Well, it's over $8 million now.

Chart courtesy of
As can be deduced from these three graphs, there is a strong correlation between the sum value of bids in the order book and the exchange rate. If we combine this with reports that there are still thousands of people waiting just to get their MtGox accounts verified, it's become apparent that the case for the current exchange rate being a bubble is getting ever so harder to make.

Perhaps instead of a continuing consolidation period, or even a temporary fall, we are actually poised for an even bigger rise? I believe that would be the correct assessment, given these facts.


  1. I would like to see these charts for the time period approaching the last big bubble. It is conceivable to me that the chart could look the same- people feeling super optimistic would lead to the high bid to ask ratio we are currently seeing but that could turn south as investor psychology changes. The MtGox verification queue length is compelling though.

  2. May not be a bubble..need some more analysis


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