Given the rapid drop in Bitcoin's value over the last 24 hours, my hope is to put things in perspective.
Stage 1: Distribution
- Spans from 2009 until 2017;
- Dominates from 2009 until 2013, at which point the creation rate halves;
- Represents the period of time of most rapid Bitcoin creation;
- Includes the first two creation rates (50 and 25 Bitcoins per block);
- Responsible for the creation of 78.125% of all Bitcoins (16,406,250);
- Inflationary during its period of dominance (until 2013);
- Bitcoins are created, sold, and re-sold, as value fluctuates wildly, with each cycle increasing the number of Bitcoin holders.
Stage 2: Application
- Spans from 2012 until 2025;
- Dominates from 2013 until 2021;
- Represents the period of time of most rapid Bitcoin application development;
- Includes part of the first creation rate and all of the next three;
- Covers the development of applications that provide services which are unambiguously cheaper and more efficient than similar services relying on other technologies;
- Quickly transitions from inflationary to deflationary during its period of dominance as Bitcoin applications gain marketshare.
Stage 3: Transaction
- Spans and dominates from 2021 onward;
- Represents the period of time where nearly all important applications have already been developed;
- Includes all rates of Bitcoin creation beyond the first three;
- 90% of Bitcoins are in circulation at the beginning of this stage;
- Bitcoins are exchanged for increasingly valuable goods and services;
- Bitcoins are rarely exchanged for fiat currencies;
- Pure exchanges that have not diversified their services no longer exist;
- Money transfer service providers that deal in fiat currencies no longer exist.
Are you just pulling this out of your ass? No data. No facts. Just blog filler.
ReplyDeleteIt is readily apparent to a "Mapper." Not so much to a "Packer." I'm going to go ahead and assume you are the latter.
ReplyDeletehttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=47053.0
"Deflationary during its period of dominance (until 2013"
ReplyDeleteDid you mean inflationary?
"Quickly transitions from deflationary to inflationary during its period of dominance as Bitcoin applications gain marketshare."
Did you mean inflationary to deflationary?
I love your blog.
i would think the distribution phase is inflationary instead of deflationary.
ReplyDeleteFixed (shouldn't be blogging past bedtime).
ReplyDeleteI updated the graph so that the color gradients better represent the stages.
ReplyDeleteThe data and the facts are the creation curve. The rest is speculation - that is what I do. If Bitcoin succeeds, which I think it will, this is how I believe it will play out.
ReplyDeleteI'd say you're spot on. Great job!
ReplyDeleteWhat happens after 2049?
ReplyDeleteI officially love this post. Even if it is highly optimistic, the timescales are spot on. It's ridiculous that people judge Bitcoin based on a few months of development. No economy, especially a revolutionary one, is built in one day. It takes a lot of time.
ReplyDeleteIn and around 2049, aliens will make first contact with Earth when they discover that humans have successfully implemented a cryptographic currency system, thus proving themselves worthy to join the intergalactic alliance of intelligent species.
ReplyDelete@up this is now probably my favourite Bitcoin-related quote.
ReplyDeletehow much for a bj?
ReplyDeleteCriticizing Bitcoin right now is like looking at a 2 year old playing the cello and saying that he will never be a good player because he is only playing twinkle twinkle little star. Speculation is not only good for Bitcoin, its expected and its wonderful for getting the concept out to mass audience. Just because it falls back to a moderate level (2 dollars is still amazing for such a new concept) is still impressive. And now its going through another speculation bubble. Bitcoin is here to stay.
ReplyDelete